2002 Tony Predictions

So here they are. My predictions for the 2002 Tony Awards. I doubt more than maybe half will be right, but these are as much based on who *should* win as who *will* win. With the Tonys the two are only occassionally the same.

BEST PLAY:
  • Fortune's Fool by Ivan Turgenev, adapted by Mike Poulton
  • The Goat, or Who Is Sylvia? by Edward Albee
  • Metamorphoses by Mary Zimmerman
  • Topdog/Underdog by Suzan-Lori Parks
Really a tough category to call this year, but Topdog/Underdog is still riding the wave of Suzan-Lori Parks' Pulitzer win, so I think that will probably prove to be enough momentum to bring home a win. Fortune's Fool is also a very strong contender.

BEST MUSICAL:
  • Mamma Mia!
  • Sweet Smell of Success
  • Thoroughly Modern Millie
  • Urinetown
Despite indications that U-town was going to be able to take it home this year, I still think it's a little too downtown for the Tony voters. It has that nose in the air, "look at us being clever and witty and anti-establishment" tone that is still very Off-Broadway despite the fact that it's playing in a Broadway house now. Millie's reviews weren't spectacular, but it has a strong set of leading and supporting performances (as is evidenced by the fact that it got a nomination in all four acting categories) and is the kind of bright, upbeat comedy that is just so very NY. Given the political climate lately I think it has a strong chance, though U-town could surprise me.

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL:
  • Into the Woods
  • Oklahoma!
Nominations for Gregg Edelman and Laura Benanti help ITW's case a bit, but overall I think Oklahoma! is at the very least is perceived as being a more solid all around production. The weakness of Little Red and Jack in ITW is a big whole in the show that Oklahoma!, even with less than stellar performances by Josefina Gabrielle and Jessice Boevers, just doesn't have.

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY:
  • The Crucible by Arthur Miller
  • Morning's at Seven by Paul Osborn
  • Noises Off by Michael Frayn
  • Private Lives by Noel Coward
Okay this has no real logic behind it, but I freaking love Noel Coward and Alan Rickman, so there we go. I also do think Private Lives has a legitimate shot at winning. The Crucible is also a strong possibility.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A LEADING ACTOR IN A PLAY:
  • Alan Bates, Fortune's Fool
  • Billy Crudup, The Elephant Man
  • Liam Neeson, The Crucible
  • Alan Rickman, Private Lives
  • Jeffrey Wright, Topdog/Underdog
Really anyone could take this. But I adore Liam Neeson so I have to go with him. Alan Rickman would be my second choice sentimentally.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A LEADING ACTRESS IN A PLAY :
  • Kate Burton, Hedda Gabler
  • Lindsay Duncan, Private Lives
  • Laura Linney, The Crucible
  • Helen Mirren, Dance of Death
  • Mercedes Ruehl, The Goat
She is such a grande dame of theatre, it's hard to see anyone pulling this out from under her. Though again, a close category.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A LEADING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL :
  • Gavin Creel, Thoroughly Modern Millie
  • John Cullum, Urinetown
  • John Lithgow, Sweet Smell of Success
  • John McMartin, Into the Woods Patrick Wilson, Oklahoma!
I would love to see John Lithgow not win just on principle after the finaggling that occurred to keep Brian d'Arcy James out of this category, but he'll win. I just don't see anyway around it. And yay Gavin Creel!!! Just had to throw that in.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A LEADING ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL:
  • Sutton Foster, Thoroughly Modern Millie
  • Nancy Opel, Urinetown
  • Louise Pitre, Mamma Mia!
  • Jennifer Laura Thompson, Urinetown
  • Vanessa Williams, Into the Woods
Sutton *owns* this category. That is just all there is to it. It is almost impossible to beat the hype of being the "hot new thing" and that is exactly what Sutton is.

BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY :
  • Howard Davies, Private Lives
  • Richard Eyre, The Crucible
  • Daniel Sullivan, Morning's at Seven
  • Mary Zimmerman, Metamorphoses
Directorially, Metamorphoses is the most challenging show out there I think. Richard Eyre is a close second choice.

BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL :
  • James Lapine, Into the Woods
  • Michael Mayer, Thoroughly Modern Millie
  • Trevor Nunn, Oklahoma!
  • John Rando, Urinetown
Being able to take a show that he has already directed and reinvent it into something that doesn't just seem like a rehashing of the same old ideas is a huge accomplishment. Michael Mayer is second choice here.

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL:
  • John Guare, Sweet Smell of Success
  • Catherine Johnson, Mamma Mia
  • Greg Kotis, Urinetown
  • Richard Morris and Dick Scanlan, Thoroughly Modern Millie
Sweet Smell is weak by most accounts, Mamma Mia's books is flimsy at best and usually clunky, and U-town is just trying too hard to be clever. Millie is, my almost all accounts, fun and fairly clever. I have to give it to Millie on this one, no question.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
  • Harry Connick, Jr., Thou Shalt Not
  • Marvin Hamlisch, Craig Carnelia, Sweet Smell of Success
  • Mark Hollman and Greg Kotis, Urinetown
  • Jeanine Tesori and Dick Scanlan, Thoroughly Modern Millie
It's hard to see Marvin Hamlisch get nominated and not expect him to win, but Sweet Smell sounds like a watered down version of every other Marvin Hamlisch score. It's just not his best work and Millie, despite some negativity on the part of critics, is a clever and very well crafted score. Personally I'd give them the Tony just for "Speed Test" alone.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY :
  • Frank Langella, Fortune's Fool
  • William Biff McGuire, Morning's at Seven
  • Brian Murray, The Crucible
  • Sam Robards, The Man Who Had All the Luck
  • Stephen Tobolowsky, Morning's at Seven
I don't see how Frank Langella could not win, though Sam Robards is just to fabulous, I'd love to see him win too.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY:
  • Kate Burton, The Elephant Man
  • Katie Finneran, Noises Off
  • Elizabeth Franz, Morning's at Seven
  • Estelle Parsons, Morning's at Seven
  • Frances Sternhagen, Morning's at Seven
Elephant Man has to win something, and Kate Burton has to as well I think. And she is amazing in the show from what I hear.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL:
  • Norbert Leo Butz, Thou Shalt Not
  • Gregg Edelman, Into the Woods
  • Shuler Hensley, Oklahoma!
  • Brian d'Arcy James, Sweet Smell of Success
  • Marc Kudisch, Thoroughly Modern Millie
Ahhh, my boys!! I love all of them, I really do. And I will be happy with whoever wins. But I have to go with Shuler Hensley. The reviews were so good and he already has an Olivier for it. The only real competition I think he'd have would be Brian d'Arcy James and that's really only because he *should* be nominated as a Leading Actor. Of course we know I'll be rooting for Marc (and Gregg too), but I'm not holding my breath for that to happen.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL:
  • Laura Benanti, Into the Woods
  • Harriet Harris, Thoroughly Modern Millie
  • Spencer Kayden, Urinetown
  • Judy Kaye, Mamma Mia!
  • Andrea Martin, Oklahoma!
An amazingly talented woman in a great and challenging role. The buzz about her has also been great, so that helps.

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY:
  • Rob Ashford, Thoroughly Modern Millie
  • John Carrafa, Into the Woods
  • John Carrafa, Urinetown
  • Susan Stroman, Oklahoma!
Tap dancing stenographers, how can you beat that? But seriously, I just don't want to see Stro win again. I am beyond sick of her. And Into the Woods? I just don't understand the idea to put dancing in that show to begin with.

So there you have it. I'm skipping the tech ones because I 1) don't so much care and 2) don't have anything to base my judgments on (even more so than with the rest of these). I'm not expecting to be right, so don't harass me when I'm not. ;-)

And now that the dust has settled, check out my reactions to the winners!


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